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It wasn’t clear Tuesday morning if top House Republican Kevin McCarthy would be successful in his push to become his chamber’s next speaker, as a sufficient number of GOP lawmakers continued to oppose his bid.
Some 14 Republicans have publicly vowed or suggested they’re against a McCarthy speakership, and there are expectations that he can handle no more than four defections given his party’s 222-213 majority.
The House is expected to convene around noon Eastern and kick off the new congressional session with the election of a speaker. If McCarthy’s effort flops, the No. 2 House Republican, Steve Scalise of Louisiana, is viewed as having a good chance of getting the job.
Analysts are warning that Tuesday’s tensions over what’s typically a ceremonial election could signal that the House will be dysfunctional throughout 2023 and 2024.
“In our view, the challenge to McCarthy underscores the difficulty that a narrow and fractured GOP majority will have in working with Democrats in the Senate on key issues such as the debt limit, government funding, and Ukraine in 2023,” said Benjamin Salisbury, director of research at Height Capital Markets, in a note.
Salisbury noted that McCarthy has agreed to several concessions in his attempt to become speaker, “but these conditions could hinder the ability of any speaker to pass critical legislation, such as government funding or raising the debt limit.”
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