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Republican voters in Iowa are getting their customary moment in the spotlight right now, as they’re due to hold their first-in-the-nation caucuses on Monday, kicking off the 2024 GOP presidential race.
But it’s not looking like much of a contest, as former President Donald Trump has big leads in most polls over rivals such as Nikki Haley, his former ambassador to the United Nations, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The front-runner is once again planning to skip a debate that’s planned for Wednesday night and instead do his own town hall, with both events taking place in Des Moines.
So what level of support should Trump’s 2024 campaign want to see among Iowa GOP voters? There’s an expectations game in presidential primaries, just as there is with quarterly earnings or economic data.
“The 50% barrier is really critical for him,” said Jim Ellis, president of election analysis firm Ellis Insight and a former GOP congressional aide. “Most of the polling indicates that he can reach or exceed that, and I think he needs to. If he does, that gives him good momentum going the rest of the way.”
Getting support in the low 40s “could be a warning sign” for Trump, but it’s not likely, Ellis added.
The 45th president has 52% support in Iowa polls, according to a RealClearPolitics moving average of surveys as of Wednesday. DeSantis, whose campaign has bet big on Iowa, has been second in RCP’s average of Iowa polls up until this week. Haley is now No. 2 with 17% support, ahead of DeSantis at 16%.
In New Hampshire, which is scheduled to hold its GOP primary on Jan. 23, Trump gets 43% support vs. 29% for Haley, 12% for former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and 6% for DeSantis.
Trump is attempting to become the first non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate to win in both Iowa and New Hampshire, noted Chris Krueger, an analyst at TD Cowen Washington Research Group. Krueger offered the chart below that illustrates how the Hawkeye State often hasn’t been kind to the candidate who goes on to become the GOP nominee.
If Haley were to get second to Trump in Iowa, topping DeSantis, that would give her momentum going into New Hampshire, where she might be able to score a surprise win, Krueger said. The Granite State is “a prime location for a potential Trump ambush” given Haley has been endorsed by popular GOP Gov. Chris Sununu and the primary’s open structure allows Democrats and independents to vote in it.
Haley then might keep her momentum going into her home state of South Carolina’s Feb. 23 primary, as well as into the Super Tuesday races on March 5, but overall this is a “fraught” path, the TD Cowen analyst said in a report. It’s “possible — just not probable,” he wrote.
Betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics put Trump’s chances for winning the 2024 GOP presidential nomination at 74%, while Haley is at 15% and DeSantis, 5%.
In South Carolina, the former president has 52% support, according to RCP’s moving average, followed by 22% for Haley, a former governor of the state, and 11% for DeSantis.
Related: How betting markets got the 2022 midterm elections wrong
When Trump might clinch the nomination
When might the front-runner put the nomination fight to bed and move on to the general-election battle against President Joe Biden?
Wolfe Research has offered an assessment of that question that’s illustrated in the chart below. The chart shows the “cumulative percentage of delegates awarded as the nomination calendar proceeds, along with a rough ballpark of where Trump’s delegate count might be tracking if he wins around 70% of the delegates, representing a mix of winner-take-all victories and narrow majorities or strong pluralities in states where Haley makes a good showing,” said Wolfe’s head of policy and politics, Tobin Marcus.
“On this trajectory, even if Haley and/or DeSantis attempt to go the distance rather than dropping out, Trump would formally clinch the nomination by early April, and the writing will be on the wall by early March,” Marcus added. “Note this puts him on track to win the nomination before a verdict is delivered in any of his criminal prosecutions.”
Could the non-Trump Republican presidential hopefuls start to drop out soon? Don’t count on it, according to some analysts.
“There’s an incentive to stay in the race because of the possibility that Trump may be convicted of a criminal offense,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia.
“It isn’t just about what the voters in Iowa and New Hampshire think. It’s also what the jurors in various courtrooms around the country think.”
The former president’s GOP rivals are “hoping for a Hail Mary — some dramatic change in circumstances — that allows you to win over support that is now pretty much locked in for Trump,” Farnsworth told MarketWatch.
Trump faces charges in Washington, D.C., and Georgia’s Fulton County in election-interference cases and also was indicted last year in a hush-money case and a classified-documents case. He has denied wrongdoing and argued the charges are politically motivated, and many Republican primary voters share his views and have rallied around him.
Wednesday’s debate and Trump’s counterprogramming
The latest debate for the 2024 GOP presidential primary is scheduled for 9 p.m. Eastern Wednesday at Drake University in Des Moines. It’s slated to air on CNN.
With tougher requirements for qualifying, only DeSantis, Haley and Trump made the cut, while Christie, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson didn’t.
Instead of joining in the debate, Trump plans to take part in a town hall on Fox News, so just DeSantis and Haley will be on stage. The former president’s event is also slated to air at 9 p.m. Eastern Wednesday, with the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines serving as the setting.
“A debate between DeSantis and Haley is really a battle for a distant second place,” said Ellis of Ellis Insight. “I doubt it’s gonna get great ratings, and I would think Trump’s town hall will outdraw.”
Economic plans from DeSantis, Haley and Trump
In his economic plan, DeSantis has leaned heavily into energy
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policy for addressing inflation, and he’s promised to rein in spending and criticized the Trump administration’s outlays.
Haley’s economic proposals include raising Social Security’s retirement age but only for younger people just entering the system, along with eliminating the federal tax on gasoline
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Trump’s ideas for a second term include a 10% tariff on all imports, making another attempt to end Obamacare
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and addressing student debt by launching a free online college called the American Academy.
Now read: Here’s how the 2024 presidential candidates say they’ll tackle elevated home prices
And see: As Biden touts his Inflation Reduction Act, analysts size up how Trump might repeal it
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