After stocks surged to their best gains in three weeks following strong consumer sentiment data, Thursday is looking less spirited with equity futures in the red as we close in on the long Christmas weekend.
Investors should be accustomed to that here-today-gone-tomorrow kind of trading action they’ve endured this year, as the better sessions seem outweighed by the not-so-great ones. That is reflected in the 18% drop we’ve seen for the S&P 500
so far in 2022, and Wall Street strategists tearing up their maps forward again and again.
For all the grinding lower of this market, it’s still not that cheap, as Michael O’Rourke, chief strategist at JonesTrading, reminds us. He notes that the S&P 500
market cap to GDP has shrunk to 129% from 180% almost a year ago, thanks to the tech-led pullback.
“That is a notable correction, but it is also a 6.7% premium to the 2000 bubble and a 50% premium to the three decades average,” said the strategist who suggests investors keep watching this to gauge the priciness of this market.
So investors are headed into 2023 with valuations having corrected, but not a supercheap market. In short, risk appetite remains poor, and “managers are looking to weather the storm rather than take advantage of real potential alpha,” notes Mark Ritchie II, chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors and a son of the legendary investor by the same name.
But for those investors who aren’t afraid to at least look at where the extra gains in this market may come from, Ritchie offers up a couple of sectors and investment ideas to watch in our call of the day, from an interview he gave to Real Vision earlier this week.
The first is solar, a small, niche part of the market that he notes has been holding up well in line with energy prices. “If you look at the leading names in that group, there’s a few that have real earnings and sales, those could continue to be explosive,” said Richie.
He’s also keeping a close eye on biotechs, though notes it’s more stock selective as some parts of the sector are not trading great. “But there are some specific stocks that are trading very well. I think you want to be looking there potentially,” he said.
While these two areas hold risk, Ritchie said he would be dipping into them again should they keep holding up relative to the market. “And if you look specifically at the biotechs that are acting well, they all bottomed,” he said.
On that, he says rather than pick up ETFs, such as the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
investors should look at companies in the larger cap that have held up well —Biogen
and Eli Lilly
to name a few.
“But I would just say, look at one of the biotechs that have the highest relative strength, meaning relative to the overall market, or one of the ones that are potentially hitting or trading near 52-week highs,” said Ritchie.
are dropping, as bond yields
edge lower, with the dollar
stead. Oil prices
are up 1.8%. The Hang Seng
charged higher, taking a cue from Wall Street’s positive session.
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Weekly jobless claims and third-quarter gross domestic product are on tap for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, following by leading indicators at 10 a.m.
Shares of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals
are tumbling after a disappointing Phase 2 study of treatment for shingles complication.
Micron Technology shares
are down after the memory chip maker announced plans to cut jobs and expenses after reporting a loss and weak demand.
Two former FTX and Alameda Research executives pleaded guilty to fraud late Wednesday, the same day that FTX co-founder and former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was being extradited back to the U.S. to face charges.
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The chart of the day comes from Jesse Felder, founder of Felder Investment Research and blogger at The Felder Report, who explores whether a “larger regime change is underway” as the 60/40 portfolio has taken it on the chin this year.
A 30-year history of the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust
to the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund
“shows there are times to own precious metals and then there are times to own stocks and bonds,” Felder writes.
He said the ratio is back above its 36-month average as well as breaking out of a decadelong downtrend. “If this is, indeed, indicative of another major regime change then we should expect precious metals to outperform stocks and bonds for an extended period of time, perhaps for the next decade or so,” said Felder.
These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatcha as of 6 a.m. Eastern:
||AMC Entertainment Holdings|
||AMC Entertainment Holdings preferred shares|
||Digital World Acquisition|
California dog missing for more than a year headed home for Christmas after turning up alive and well in Kansas.
Rock band Journey feuding over performances for former U.S. President Donald Trump.
It’s time for Spain’s annual “El Gordo” lottery draw with $2.7 billion up for grabs
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