Australian Dollar Looking Vulnerable: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD Price Action

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Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar – Price Setups:

  • AUD is looking vulnerable as it tests vital support.
  • Key focus is on Australia retail sales and US core PCE data tomorrow.
  • Which way for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, and AUD/CAD?

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The Australian dollar is looking vulnerable as it tests key support against the US dollar, a break below which could lead to further losses in the near term.

AUD has been hurt by a mix of factors recently: a setback in risk sentiment amid the lack of meaningful progress in Washington over raising the debt limit, a trimming back of rate cut expectations after hawkish speak from US Federal Reserve officials, and underwhelming Australia data (jobs data being the most recent).

This puts increased focus on Australia retail sales data for April due Friday – forecast to have slowed to 0.1% on-month from 0.4% previously.A below-expected print could precipitate a decline in AUD. Also, a higher-than-expected US core PCE price index print (expected to remain flat at 4.6% on-year) could boost USD.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView

AUD/USD: Threatens to break lower

AUD/USD is attempting to break under crucial support on a horizontal trendline from November at about 0.6585. Such a break could open the way initially toward 0.6350, based on the width of the sideway channel. Importantly, such a move would negate the bullish prospects highlighted in “Australian Dollar Ahead of Budget: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD Price Setups”, published May 9. On the upside, AUD/USD would need to clear the hurdle at 0.6805 for the downward pressure to fade.

AUD/CAD Daily Chart


Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView

AUD/CAD: Cracks below support

AUD/CAD’s fall below a horizontal trendline from April at about 0.8950 has triggered a minor double top (the April and the May highs), potentially exposing downside risks toward 0.8800. The bearish development follows a failure to cross above stiff resistance on the 89-day moving average (see the daily chart).

AUD/JPY Daily Chart


Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView

AUD/JPY: Upside capped

AUD/JPY risks a turn lower as it tests a strong converged barrier on the 200-day moving average, roughly coinciding with the February high of 93.00. Any break below 90.00-90.25 would raise the odds of a continuation of the well-established broad range of 86.00-93.00.

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— Written by Manish Jaradi, Strategist for

— Contact and follow Jaradi on Twitter: @JaradiManish

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