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America is nearing the big 4-0.
The Census Bureau said Thursday morning that the median age in the United States hit a record 38.9 last year. Median means that half of Americans are older than that, and half are younger.
The number is going up rapidly. In 2000, the median age was 35; in 1980, it was 30.
These are more than mere numbers. They have profound implications for a variety of overlapping areas, such as economic development, national security and social programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
What’s behind the steady rise in the nation’s median age? The number of older Americans is exploding, in both absolute and relative terms. Between 2010 and 2020, for example, the number of Americans age 65 or older grew by 15.5 million. In percentage terms, the number of Americans age 65 and older grew 3.8 percentage points, to 16.8% of the total population.
“The number of Americans age 95 and older grew by 50% between 2010 and 2020.”
For context, it took half a century — from 1960 to 2020 — for the 65-and-older group to grow that much.
Call it the baby-boomer effect: Most of the 76 million people born between 1946 and 1964 are now well into retirement age. Only those born at the tail end of this period have yet to reach the minimum age to claim Social Security of 62.
Read: The magic number for retirement climbs as most Americans expect to work longer — except Gen Z
“You can really see how the aging of baby boomers, and now their children — sometimes called echo boomers — is impacting the median age. The eldest of the echo boomers have started to reach or exceed the nation’s median age of 38.9,” says Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Census Bureau’s Population Division. “While natural change nationally has been positive, as there have been more births than deaths, birth rates have gradually declined over the past two decades. Without a rapidly growing young population, the U.S. median age will likely continue its slow but steady rise.”
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What’s fascinating here is that among the fast-growing 65-and-older crowd, some subgroups are growing at an even quicker pace. The still-small number of Americans age 95 and older, for example, grew by 50% between 2010 and 2020.
This is straining the finances of Social Security and Medicare. During the Trump and now the Biden administration, officials have been warning that the Social Security Trust Fund is paying out more than it is taking in. When that happens — the current projection is for this to occur in 2035 — monthly payouts will be cut 25%, unless action is taken to shore up the program.
Read: Hey, politicians, keep your hands off our Social Security
Adding to this financial strain is the fact that America’s birth rate has been falling for nearly two decades, though it now shows signs of leveling off. Simply put: while the number of older Americans is growing rapidly, the number of younger Americans is not.
Another reason the median age — and with it the strain on entitlement programs — is rising is immigration. Traditionally, welcoming eager arrivals to our country has helped keep the United States young, but immigration has actually slowed in recent years.
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