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June FX Seasonality Overview:
- The sixth month of the year typically sees modest losses for the US Dollar.
- The commodity currencies typically perform well in June, with positive 5- and 10-year averages for each of AUD, CAD, and NZD.
- June has been a good month for US stocks, but a mixed month for gold prices.
The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. For June, our focus is on the trailing 5-year and 10-year performances, both of which fully capture trading during an era of aggressive central bank intervention since the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis, as well as the ensuing feeble attempt to pullback stimulus – not dissimilar from the environment we find ourselves in during the coronavirus pandemic recovery.
As has been the case for the past three months, persistent atypical conditions reduce the practicality of using seasonality as a price action indicator. Global commodity markets remain in disarray as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, while global supply chains are still clogged amid China’s unrelenting zero COVID strategy. Seasonality tendencies remain downgraded in terms of their reliability or actionability.
Monthly Forex Seasonality Summary – June 2022
Forex Seasonality in Euro (via EUR/USD)
June is a bullish month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the sixth worst month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +0.31%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the third best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.57%.
Forex Seasonality in British Pound (via GBP/USD)
June is a bearish month for GBP/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fifth worst month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -0.26%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the fifth worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -0.25%.
Forex Seasonality in Japanese Yen (via USD/JPY)
June isa mixed month for USD/JPY, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the second best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +0.86%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the fourth worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -0.37%.
Forex Seasonality in Australian Dollar (via AUD/USD)
June is a bullish month for AUD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fifth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +0.60%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.88%.
Forex Seasonality in New Zealand Dollar (via NZD/USD)
June isa bullish month for NZD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the sixth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +0.62%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the second best month of the year, averaging a gain of +1.05%.
Forex Seasonality in Canadian Dollar (via USD/CAD)
June is a bearish month for USD/CAD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fourth worst month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -0.89%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the second worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -0.72%.
Forex Seasonality in Swiss Franc (via USD/CHF)
June is a bearish month for USD/CHF, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the sixth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -0.31%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the third worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -0.82%.
Forex Seasonality in US S&P 500
June isa bullish month for the US S&P 500, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fifth best month of the year for the index, averaging a gain of +2.38%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the fourth best month of the year, averaging a gain of +1.43%.
Forex Seasonality in Gold (via XAU/USD)
June is a mixed month for gold (XAU/USD), from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fifth worst month of the year for the precious metal, averaging a loss of -0.39%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the sixth best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.28%.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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