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Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) Talking Points:
- It’s been a very busy week across global markets with considerable focus around the Wednesday FOMC rate decision.
- Non-farm Payrolls for the month of April is released just two days after that rate decision, and following this morning’s data, there’s a slew of Fed-speakers on the calendar for this afternoon. So it could remain a very busy day as we head into the weekend of what’s been a big outing for markets.
This morning brings the release of Non-farm Payrolls for the month of April and, after what’s already been a very eventful week, this data point is likely going to garner considerable attention.
The Fed has just hiked rates by 50 basis points for the first time since the year 2000. This, of course, is in effort of reducing the 40-year highs that continue to show with inflation data, and a large portion of that inflationary focus is on wage growth, which will be touched on in this morning’s NFP release.
The expectation for this morning’s release was for the US to have added +391k jobs in the month of April, along with an unemployment rate at 3.5% v/s a prior print of 3.6%. But – on that wage growth front, the expectation is actually for some softening – to 5.5% versus last month’s 5.6%.
While .1% is a nominal difference, seeing some reduction here would likely bring a sense of relief for the Fed as they’re faced with a number of options that all contain some considerable downside potential.
Ahead of the release, the US Dollar remains very near recently-established 19-year highs. Initially the Dollar dropped on the back of the FOMC announcement. But, it came raging back yesterday as buyers bid the dip and prices broke through resistance to set a fresh high.
US Dollar Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview
— Written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX
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