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Pfizer
PFE,
put out its yearly sales guidance for Comirnaty, the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with BioNTech
BNTX,
saying it expects $13.5 billion in revenue this year. The shot brought in $37.8 billion in 2022.
The drugmaker also set out revenue expectations for its COVID antiviral, Paxlovid, to $8.0 billion for the year. That’s lower than the FactSet consensus of $10.4 billion for 2023 and a 57% drop in year-over-year revenue compared with the $18.9 billion that the drug generated for Pfizer in 2022.
The new estimates underscore the waning influence of the pandemic on a company that jumped in early with the development of Comirnaty and Paxlovid. That brought big benefits to patients and shareholders alike and a reputational boost that’s rare for pharmaceutical companies.
But as people have returned to normal life thanks to vaccine- or infection-induced immunity, COVID has become a much less disruptive force, and Wall Street has urged Pfizer to lower revenue estimates for both therapies, noting the company’s previous much higher revenue estimates for Comirnaty and Paxlovid in 2023.
However, Pfizer is still bullish on the longer-term potential of the company’s COVID franchise, with CEO Albert Bourla telling investors on Tuesday that he expects vaccinations to increase again in 2025 following somewhat flat usage of Comirnaty over the next two years. The company expects that about 65 million doses of Comirnaty will be administered in the U.S. in 2023 and again in 2024; by 2025, Bourla predicts that a combination COVID-flu shot will increase vaccination rates among Americans.
“The successful introduction of a COVID-flu combo could over time bring the percentage of Americans receiving the COVID-19 vaccine closer to the portion of people getting flu shots, which is currently about 50%,” he said, according to a FactSet transcript of the call.
Pfizer’s fourth-quarter results also showed weakening demand for Paxlovid in spite of the wave of COVID infections around the winter holidays. The drug had $1.8 billion in sales in the final three months of the year, against a FactSet consensus estimate of $5 billion.
“In 2023 and beyond, we expect infections to increase slightly at 2% annually due to waning immune protection of the population resulting from reduced vaccination rates,” Bourla said. “Similarly, we expect treatment rates to increase as awareness, education, and additional oral entries will grow the oral antiviral market.”
The company reported fourth-quarter profit that topped expectations, but revenue came up short in the final three months of 2022. Net income was $5 billion, or 87 cents a share, in the fourth quarter of the year, up from $3.4 billion, or 59 cents a share, in the same quarter of 2021. Pfizer’s revenue grew 1.9% to $24.3 billion for the quarter, up from $23.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. The FactSet consensus was for $24.4 billion.
The pharmaceutical giant’s stock, which has been edging down for months, has declined 17.3% over the past 12 months, while the SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals exchange-traded fund
XPH,
has gained 2.7%.
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