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Social Security, caregiving and the cost of prescription drug costs – issues crucial to voters aged 50 years and older – could influence the results in close 2024 elections, according to a new AARP poll.
The poll, which surveyed likely voters from the 40 most competitive congressional districts, showed that older voters say candidates’ stances on Social Security and Medicare are very important factors influencing their vote next November (81% and 77%, respectively).
President Biden brought those issues into the headlines during his State of the Union address in January. Since then, some legislators have been discussing ways to reform Social Security before the combined trust that back the program becomes depleted in 2034.
Another 70% of older voters want candidates to support policies to help older adults live independently at home as they age, the poll found.
A total of 38% of voters are currently caregivers, a number that doubles when those who have been one in the past or expect to be one in the future are included.
Read: ‘There are so many caregivers and a lot of fragmented resources.’ These free videos may help.
Democrats have an advantage over Republicans among these older voters on caregiving (44% – 38%), but in a generic congressional ballot, more caregivers today vote Republican over Democrat (49% – 38%), AARP said.
Read: Biden would beat Trump even if a third-party candidate joins White House race: poll
Over two-thirds of voters 50 and older also rate the cost of prescription drugs as a very important issue, with Democrats leading by just three points (42% – 39%) on their perceived handling of this issue, the poll found.
“Caregiving and the cost of prescription drugs could very likely be the most important issues of the upcoming election cycle,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer. “Candidates can’t afford to ignore the issues that matter to the 50+ – who will likely be the decisive voting bloc in 2024 – especially in an election cycle where control of Congress and the White House are both up for grabs.”
In the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, the share of voters aged 50 and older was about four times that of voters under 30 years old, AARP said. In the 2020 presidential election, the share of voters 50+ was nearly three times that of voters under 30.
Not only will older voters likely continue to make up a larger share of the electorate in 2024, AARP’s new poll showed that they are also much more motivated to vote. And 85% of voters 50+ say they are extremely motivated to vote in 2024, compared to just 67% of younger voters.
In these 40 competitive districts, the parties were tied on a generic congressional ballot. Among older voters, those aged 50 to 64 strongly favored the Republicans (52% – 35%), while those age 65 and older leaned Democratic (46% – 43%). Women age 50 or older favor the GOP by just one point over Democrats (44%-43%), while men age 50+ show much stronger Republican support (52% – 38%).
A hypothetical matchup between President Biden and former President Trump shows President Biden winning these districts by 47% – 43% with voters 18+, but among voters 50+ Trump leads by 1-point (45% – 46%). In a second hypothetical matchup, President Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are tied, both at 45%. Among voters 50+ though, President Biden trails Gov. DeSantis, 48% – 43%, the poll found.
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