S&P 500 futures just shy of record high as interest rate optimism holds sway

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U.S. stock futures were little changed, indicating the S&P 500 will open a fraction shy of a fresh record amid lingering optimism that U.S. borrowing costs will fall in 2024.

How are stock-index futures trading

  • S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    -0.05%

    dipped 1 point, or 0% to 4824

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
    YM00,
    -0.05%

    fell 4 points, or 0% to 37890

  • Nasdaq 100 futures
    NQ00,
    -0.03%

    eased 2 points, or 0% to 17081

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
rose 159 points, or 0.43%, to 37545, the S&P 500
SPX
increased 20 points, or 0.42%, to 4775, and the Nasdaq Composite gained
COMP
82 points, or 0.54%, to 15075.

What’s driving markets

Futures indicated the S&P 500 will open Wednesday’s session only about 0.5% below its record closing high of 4,796.56, set on January 3rd, 2022.

The Wall Street equity benchmark is striving for a ninth consecutive week of gains, which would be its best such winning streak since 2004, having jumped 24.4% so far in 2023.

Investors have piled into stocks primarily on hopes that with inflation falling back near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the central bank will start reducing borrowing costs by the spring of 2024, and all while the U.S. economy avoids a recession.

“Aside from the customary Santa seasonality, any gains witnessed for the remainder of this week may be attributed to the notable increase in the probability of a soft landing, as indicated by the latest round of high-impact macroeconomic data from the United States,” said Stephen Innes,

That bullish narrative was being additionally supported Wednesday, by a mostly positive return to trading by markets that were closed for an extended Christmas break, such as the U.K.
UK:UKX,
Germany
DX:DAX,
Australia
AU:XJO
and Hong Kong
HK:HSI.

Indeed, Hong Kong and mainland China markets
CN:SHCOMP
were also buoyed by a rebound for gaming stocks after Beijing appeared to take a more conciliatory tone towards the sector.

Meanwhile, traders were keeping a wary eye on the oil market for any signs that increased Middle East tensions might sharply lift prices and revive inflationary pressures.

Brent crude oil
BRN00,
-0.35%
,
the global benchmark, early Wednesday was trading at a near one-month high above $80 a barrel, though moves on the day were fairly meager. “The bullish market reaction looks relatively week given the amplitude of the issues in the region.” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

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