SVB and First Republic are just the first of many U.S. banks that will fail — if you believe 800 years of history

The banking crisis that began with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and now the failure of First Republic Bank is far more serious than it initially appeared.

Two finance professors were warning of this six weeks ago: Andrew Metrick of Yale’s School of Management, and Paul Schmelzing of Boston College and Stanford’s Hoover Institution. In a study circulated in late March by the National Bureau of Economic Research, they argued that the FDIC bailout of Silicon Valley Bank was almost certainly not an isolated event and was…