‘The Airbnb collapse is real.’ Rental revenue has halved in some parts of the U.S., says this chart

But back in the real Airbnb world, times may be getting tough as new data shows rental dollars are falling in major cities, as the debate continues as to whether the U.S. consumer is running out of spending steam.

Nick Geril, CEO of Reventure Consulting, late Tuesday tweeted the below chart from short-term rental data and analytics group AllTheRooms that showed revenue per available listing dropping by nearly 50% in some top U.S. cities.

The data highlighted the change in that revenue, calculated on a three-month average basis, between May 2022 and 2023. The biggest decline — 47.6% — was reported for listings in Sevierville, Tenn., hometown of country music legend Dolly Parton and a shopping destination in foothills of Great Smoky National Park.

A similar drop in revenue per available listing was seen in Phoenix, Arizona, while Myrtle Beach, South Carolina saw a 45.1% fall over the year. On the lower end of the scale, Panama City and Orlando, both in Florida, saw nearly 35% drops in revenue per available listing.

In a twitter thread, Geril drew a line between Airbnb and the housing market, using AllTheRooms data to show how Airbnb/Vacation Rentals by Owner listings are at roughly 1 million, versus just 570,000 houses for sale in the U.S. housing market. This, he said, would create “huge home price downside if struggling Airbnb owners elect to sell.”

He reasoned that fewer people are working from home and vacationing in states like Montana, Texas and Tennessee, he said.

He said owners also may not also be aware of what he called a pending “Airbnb crash,” noting that Phoenix has 18,000 short-term rentals, but just 8,000 properties for sale. With revenue down around 50% for the former, it creates a “cocktail for massive forced selling,” he said.

The most trouble could be looming for “newbie” Airbnb owners who financed via a mortgage in the last two years and “got in at a high price. And have a high monthly payment. And little margin for error,” he said. While they could be first to sell later this year, more seasoned owners who paid less for houses with cheaper mortgages may be able to ride out any storm.

MarketWatch has reached out to Airbnb for comment.

Data released Tuesday showed U.S. home prices rose in April amid a scarcity of listings, as buyers readjust to higher mortgage rates.

Despite signs of weakening in some Airbnb markets, the U.S. consumer doesn’t seem to be deterred from vacations this summer as spending continues to shift from goods toward experiences.

A survey from Allianz Partners released last month predicted total vacation spending above $200 billion this summer, 10% higher than what was seen in 2022, 39% above 2021’s level and 111% more than 2019.

Records are also expected to be broken for the number of people traveling — more than 50 million — for Fourth of July travel, the AAA has said.

Airbnb shares have climbed nearly 50% this year, more than recouping losses in 2022. Last month, the company reported a record in nights booked in the first quarter, driving the first profitable start to the year on record, but the shares fell on a less-bullish-than-expected forecast, predicting an unfavorable comparison to last year’s pent-up demand travel surge in the wake of the pandemic.