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U.S. carmakers are slated to report their November new-auto sales in the next few days, with Wall Street expecting a surge for the month as sales growth outweighed a slight decline in transaction prices.
Deutsche Bank analysts, citing their own calculations plus Wards and Motor Intelligence data, said Wednesday they expect the November seasonally adjusted annual rate to reach about 15.5 million vehicles, down slightly from 15.6 million vehicles in October but “solidly ahead” of November 2022’s 14.4 million.
That would mean sales up around 8% year-on-year, including a 7% rise in retail sales and an 11% increase in fleet sales. Another influential forecast from J.D. Power pegged the overall increase at 10%.
Ford Motor Co.
F,
and a few others such as Rivian Automotive Inc.
RIVN,
will report November sales, whereas General Motors Co.
GM,
and Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
have switched to quarterly reports and are next scheduled to update investors in early January.
The average transaction price for a new vehicle ticked 7% lower year-on-year to around $45,000, Deutsche Bank said. Incentives, which had all but dried up earlier in the year, were returning to dealerships as inventories, particularly for pickup trucks, “are in a better place,” the analysts at Deutsche Bank said.
Last week, J.D. Power and GlobalData jointly forecast November new-car sales surging 10% in relation to November 2022. They said they expected the November SAAR to be around 15.5 million vehicles as well.
J.D. Power said average transaction prices dropped 1.9% in November, and also pointed at rising inventories as one of the reasons behind the “strong” sales growth, despite the nearly six-week United Auto Workers strike that took some production offline.
J.D. Power also added that U.S. consumers are on track to spend nearly $44.5 billion on new vehicles in November, the highest on record for the month of November and 9.5% higher than November 2022.
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