Crypto Forecast: Will Bitcoin Have What it Takes to Break the $38k Mark?

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BITCOIN, CRYPTO KEY POINTS:

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Bitcoin prices continue to hold the high ground but the $38k level remains a stumbling block. The rumors that an ETF approval would come by the November 17th failed to come to fruition with Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart commenting that we may not get any approval until January. Surprisingly Bitcoin has remained resilient in the face of what many perceive as the SEC looking for any reason to delay their decision.

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BITCOIN SPOT ETF DELAY TO WEIGH ON PRICES?

We have heard comments from both sides of the spectrum with MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor once more looking like a genius. The Bitcoin enthusiast has renewed his bullish rhetoric regarding Bitcoin with Saylor claiming that a potential demand surge may be on its way. Saylor may not be wrong however, given that a ETF approval is likely to lead to a huge surge in demand. The most interesting Tweet by Saylor was his “cost of conventional thinking” one which showed the gains in both Bitcoin and the SPX since August 10 2010, the date at which MicroStrategy adopted it Bitcoin strategy. Since, Bitcoin is up a whopping 214% in comparison to the SPX growth of 31%.

Another reason cited for Bitcoin holding the high ground came about following the victory by Argentinian far right candidate Javier Milei who is a known Bitcoin enthusiast. Argentina has been grappling with runaway inflation with Milei critical of the Central Bank and traditional finance. This is also seen as a huge step for the crypto industry as it means a Bitcoin enthusiast is also a member of the G-20. Market participants may be hoping that this could lead to positive developments around crypto regulation moving forward.

Looking at the performance today and as you can see from the heat map below, many of the smaller coins are in the red today with Solana and Avalanche the biggest losers.

Source: TradingView

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TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS

From a technical standpoint BTCUSD is interesting as it hovers just below the $38k mark. If price continues to struggle to break higher soon then a deeper retracement may be in the offing ahead of the New Year which may not be a bad thing. This would allow would be buyers a better risk to reward opportunity before the ETF decision and halving next year.

However, what we have seen of late is Crypto whales continue to hold and build their positions while the retail trading landscape has seen a slowdown of late. A lot of this is down to the tightening financial conditions globally leaving consumers with less disposable income.

BTCUSD Daily Chart, November 20, 2023.

Source: TradingView, chart prepared by Zain Vawda

Resistance levels:

Support levels:

ETHUSD Daily Chart, November 20, 2023.

Source: TradingView, chart prepared by Zain Vawda

Looking at Ethereum and the weekly timeframe hints that a retracement may be incoming this week. The weekly candle closed as a bearish inside bar hinting at further downside ahead which will be invalidate with a daily candle close above the 2124 level. As long as price remains below this level we may face some selling pressure.

Price action on the daily timeframe does hint at a fresh high however, having printed a new lower high and bouncing off support provided by the 20-day MA last week. The mixed signals here will give market participants food for thought as we also have a golden cross pattern with the 50-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA at the time of writing. All in all, this is a rather mixed technical picture which does not offer a lot of clarity.

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— Written by Zain Vawda for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Zain on Twitter: @zvawda





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