The Republican-run U.S. House of Representatives is slated to vote Wednesday on a bipartisan tax bill that includes an expansion of the child tax credit along with business breaks, including for research and development.
A handful of House Republicans demanding inclusion of state and local tax relief in the deal helped snarl proceedings Tuesday, but the advancement of the $78 billion measure now looks back on track.
The bill is slated to get a vote through a procedure known as suspension of the rules, which limits debate, prohibits amendments and requires a two-thirds majority vote to pass.
“We currently estimate a 55%-65% probability that Congress will enact a tax bill,” said the director of research at Height Capital Markets, Benjamin Salisbury, in a note Wednesday.
“If/when the bill passes the House, the odds would improve further. But House passage is by no means a foregone conclusion, because the 2/3 threshold requires substantial support from both Republicans and Democrats in the fractious House.”
Republicans pushing for a SALT fix appear to have been assuaged by commitments from the House’s leadership about future consideration of a separate measure, Salisbury added.