House to vote today on bill aimed at child tax credit, business breaks

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The Republican-run U.S. House of Representatives is slated to vote Wednesday on a bipartisan tax bill that includes an expansion of the child tax credit along with business breaks, including for research and development.

A handful of House Republicans demanding inclusion of state and local tax relief in the deal helped snarl proceedings Tuesday, but the advancement of the $78 billion measure now looks back on track.

The bill is slated to get a vote through a procedure known as suspension of the rules, which limits debate, prohibits amendments and requires a two-thirds majority vote to pass.

“We currently estimate a 55%-65% probability that Congress will enact a tax bill,” said the director of research at Height Capital Markets, Benjamin Salisbury, in a note Wednesday.

“If/when the bill passes the House, the odds would improve further. But House passage is by no means a foregone conclusion, because the 2/3 threshold requires substantial support from both Republicans and Democrats in the fractious House.”

Republicans pushing for a SALT fix appear to have been assuaged by commitments from the House’s leadership about future consideration of a separate measure, Salisbury added.

See: Bipartisan deal could boost the child tax credit — but wouldn’t bring back the generous 2021 version. Here’s what it would mean for your taxes.

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