Poll shows Trump leading Biden in 7 swing states and favored on handling economy

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Former President Donald Trump continues to have an advantage over President Joe Biden in the U.S. states that are likely to decide the 2024 White House race, according to a poll released Wednesday.

Trump gets 48% support on average among swing-state voters, compared with 42% for Biden, according to the Bloomberg News-Morning Consult poll that focused on seven battleground states.

The Republican former president’s edge over the Democratic incumbent was biggest in North Carolina, at 10 percentage points, and smallest in Arizona and Pennsylvania, at 3 points, as shown in the chart below.


Bloomberg News/Morning Consult

Some 51% of swing-state voters said they trusted Trump over Biden to handle the U.S. economy, while 33% said Biden would be better, according to the poll.

Related: Investors are thrilled inflation is down. Regular people aren’t so happy. Here’s why.

And see: Here’s why Biden may not get a political lift from strong GDP growth

On immigration, 52% said Trump would be better on the issue, versus 30% who favored Biden.

One bright spot for Biden’s re-election campaign: 53% of voters in the seven battleground states said they would be unwilling to support Trump in the general election if he were found guilty of a crime, and 55% said they wouldn’t back him if he’s sentenced to prison.

Trump faces charges in Washington, D.C., and in Georgia’s Fulton County in election-interference cases and also was indicted last year in a hush-money case and a classified-documents case. The 45th president has denied wrongdoing and argued the prosecutions are politically motivated. Many Republican voters share his views and have rallied around him.

The latest swing-state poll comes after a New York Times/Sienna College survey in November showed Trump leading Biden by between three and 10 points in five of six battleground states.

Nikki Haley remains in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, but she’s widely viewed as a longshot, so many analysts have moved on to preparing for a Trump-Biden rematch in the general election.

The main U.S. stock gauges
SPX

DJIA

COMP
were mostly dipping Wednesday as traders awaited a Federal Reserve announcement on interest-rate policy.

Now read: Haley says Trump’s new 10% tariff would mean ‘raising taxes on every single American’

And see: Trump takes credit for stocks’ rally, yet there are expectations his Fed would be ‘not just dovish, but weird’



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