Virgin Galactic ‘blasting off to positive cash flow in mid-2026,’ analyst says

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Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. is set for a major cash-flow boost when its new Delta-class spacecraft enters service in 2026, according to T.D. Cowen. 

In a note released Monday, T.D. Cowen analyst Oliver Chen described Virgin Galactic
SPCE,
-4.60%

as “the new spaceline community blasting off to positive cash flow in mid-2026.”

The space-tourism company recently completed the penultimate mission of its Unity spacecraft before it halts commercial operations to develop its new Delta-class spacecraft. Flights are expected to resume in mid-2025 with a Delta flight test, with the new spacecraft entering service in 2026.

Related: These are the space stocks to keep an eye on in 2024

The Galactic 06 flight was Virgin Galactic’s 11th mission and carried four private astronauts into space. The flight marked the first time that all four seats aboard Unity were occupied by private astronauts.

“We believe [Virgin Galactic] is in the early innings of cultivating a high-net-worth community given customer-centric attention to detail before, during & after spaceflight,” Chen wrote, adding that the company has flown 19 customers to date. “Future scaling to weekly flights by [the second half of 2026] is dependent on build of VSS-Delta spaceships which carry better unit economics vs. VSS-Unity.”

The Delta spacecraft will have six seats and will be capable of making up to eight spaceflights a month, compared with Unity’s one spaceflight a month. Delta will increase Virgin Galactic’s monthly revenue from the current maximum of $2.4 million to a potential $28.8 million, the company said in November.

Related: Virgin Galactic’s stock rises after Truist upgrade

“We value the growth opportunities available to [Virgin Galactic] given 800 seats sold within an emerging space tourism industry and acknowledge a competitive first-mover advantage with high barrier to entry,” Chen wrote. “Key points of differentiation include: frequent pre & post flight community touch points, thoughtful integration of friends & family, the 360-degree Spaceport experience and strong attention to luxury & elevated detail with an emphasis on safety, training and complete flight preparedness.”

Blue Origin, founded by Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
-1.79%

founder and Executive Chair Jeff Bezos, is Virgin Galactic’s only competitor. “We prefer [Virgin Galactic’s] attractive horizontal takeoff system, pricing structure (Blue Origin has yet to sell tickets outside private auction) and clear focus on curating a luxury experience,” Chen wrote.

“[Virgin Galactic] will have a backlog of 777 passengers out of 800 tickets sold today (1,000 total are available) which would require 130 VSS-Delta flights or 163 flights if the remaining 200 tickets were sold,” Chen added in his note. “163 flights with two VSS-Delta at full capacity could be completed in ~10-11 months.”

Related: Virgin Galactic’s stock slides 17% after Sir Richard Branson rules out further investment

Virgin Galactic reported revenue of $1.73 million in its fiscal third-quarter results in November and forecast fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $3 million. The company exited the third quarter with $1.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, which it says will be sufficient to bring its first two Delta ships into service and achieve positive cash flow in 2026.

T.D. Cowen has an outperform rating and $2.50 price target for Virgin Galactic’s stock. Of 11 analysts surveyed by FactSet, two have a buy rating, five have a hold rating and four have an underweight or sell rating for Virgin Galactic.

Virgin Galactic shares fell 4.1% on Monday, outpacing the S&P 500 index’s
SPX
decline of 0.3%. The company’s stock has fallen 72% in the last 52 weeks, compared with the S&P 500’s gain of 20.3%.



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